There will be plenty of rushing and little passing on display as Georgia Tech takes on Air Force in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.  Both teams run the option and rank among the nation’s leaders in rushing yardage–and at the bottom of passing yardage.  Georgia Tech finished 6-6 on the year while Air Force had a record of 8-4.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Georgia Tech vs. Air Force

December 27, 2010  2:00 PM Pacific

Georgia Tech finished the regular season ranked #1 in rushing offense with 327 yards per game on the ground, while Air Force was right behind at #2 generating 317.9 yards per game. Not surprisingly, both teams were near the bottom of the passing yardage table—the Yellow Jackets ranked #119 in this category while the Falcons were #117.

This is a matchup between teams that are essentially a mirror image of one another so the question becomes ‘why is Air Force favored?’  The Falcons had a better regular season record at 8-4 compared to Georgia Tech’s 6-6 but when you factor in the Yellow Jackets’ higher class of opposition it’s not quite as clear cut that Air Force is the superior team. Neither team made money against the spread this season—Georgia Tech was 5-5 ATS while Air Force was 4-7. Of particular concern is the Falcons shoddy record as a favorite, posting a dismal 2-6 ATS mark when laying points despite a 7-1 SU record.

Another important component in this matchup is the familiarity of both teams with the option offense. Much of the effectiveness of the option is predicated on the lack of familiarity that most opponents have in defending it. Clearly that won’t be in play in this matchup as both teams not only run the option but have plenty of experience defending it. At first glance, this might seem like an edge to Air Force who plays the other option based service academies during the season but keep in mind that Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson was in charge of the Navy program before coming to Atlanta. Johnson was 3-0 SU/ATS against Air Force while coaching the Midshipmen.

Georgia Tech will likely be without QB Joshua Nesbitt here, but he’s been downgraded to doubtful. His backup, Tevin Washington, was effective in his starts and the interchangeability of its parts is another strength of the option offense. Even without Nesbitt, we’re of the opinion that Georgia Tech’s athletes may be just a cut above their Air Force counterparts. The Falcons’ poor record as a favorite suggests a team that benefitted from a lot of ‘lucky breaks’ in close games and that’s not something that can be counted on continuing.  We’ll look for Tech to win this one outright.

Placing a wager on the outcome of a sports game is similar to playing casino games likeblackjack.  You need to have luck on your side but a good strategy enhances your chance of success.

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